Evacuation modelling use and needs in Australia

18 Aug 2026
AFAC | Plenary 3
Community evacuation is a critical life-saving strategy for protecting populations during threatening natural hazards such as bushfires, floods, and cyclones, that cannot be reasonably contained. Evacuation decisions require consideration of complex and interacting factors, including vulnerable populations, available egress options, hazard evolution, emergency messaging and traffic management. Evacuation modelling can assist in decision support by simulating scenarios that test evacuation assumptions and emergency plans and help identify the compounding effects of interacting factors on evacuees and their safety. Beyond response, such tools are equally useful in planning and preparedness including town and infrastructure planning, emergency management training, and community education. Yet the practical role of evacuation modelling software across different decision contexts remains poorly understood.

This paper presents work conducted by the CSIRO and Collaborative Consulting Co as part of a project sponsored by Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action, and funded and supported by Natural Hazards Research Australia.

The study first reports on a review and survey of evacuation modelling software development and use across Australian emergency agencies, hazards, jurisdictions and decision timeframes. Much of this activity occurred following the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires, one of the deadliest days in recent Australian history, when 173 lives and more than 2000 houses were lost. While evacuation modelling tools have been applied in a range of planning, training and analytical contexts, we found no evidence of their use during live emergencies, largely constrained by limitations in real time data.

The paper then presents findings from national workshops conducted with emergency agencies to identify current and potential use cases and associated requirements for evacuation modelling software. These requirements were collated and ranked by participants to produce a prioritised roadmap intended to support the future development, integration and use of evacuation modelling tools for emergency management activities in Australia.
 
Speakers
Dhirendra Singh
Dr Dhirendra Singh, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO
Liza Gelt
Liza Gelt, Principal and Founder, Collaborative Consulting Co