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Linking Moisture Metrics to Fire Activity to Enhance Wildfire Preparedness and Seasonal Planning
Landscape moisture strongly influences fire behaviour and risk by controlling fuel ignitability, probability of fire occurrence, spread rate, fireline intensity, fuel consumption, and suppression difficulty. While numerous moisture-related indices and products exist, only a small number are currently applied in operational fire management. Identifying which metrics most effectively reflect fire potential across different spatial and temporal scales is essential for supporting wildfire preparedness and decision-making. This project aims to systematically evaluate the utility of landscape moisture metrics for fire management decision-making. We conducted the analysis at two spatial scales; wildfire preparedness (daily, 5 km) and seasonal planning (seasonal, 50km). Landscape moisture metrics were selected based on a literature review and criteria developed in an expert workshop. For the wildfire preparedness scale, we examined relationships between daily fire occurrence and daily values of landscape moisture metrics. For the seasonal planning, we explored relationships between seasonal fire activity (area burnt and number of fires) and concurrent and antecedent landscape moisture conditions. The analysis was done for 8 different fire-climate regions, to capture variation in fire seasonality across Australia. Results indicate substantial variation in the strength and scale of relationships among metrics, with some outperforming current operational indices. The outcomes will help guide the selection of moisture metrics that provide the most reliable early indicators of fire potential, supporting more evidence-based preparedness and seasonal planning.
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