Invited Speaker | Making the call: Leadership, judgment, and learning in complex environments

19 Aug 2026
AFAC | Plenary 3
Leadership in emergency and operational environments demands sound decision-making under pressure, often with incomplete or ambiguous information. This presentation explores how leaders develop that capability over time, drawing on the strong parallels between military operations and firefighting.
Using two personal operational narratives, the presentation examines how leaders make decisions in dynamic, time-critical conditions and how those decisions are shaped by training, experience, culture, and self-awareness. Rather than offering prescriptive answers or idealised models of leadership, the presentation focuses on learning journeys—how understanding one’s own decision-making behaviour, strengths, and limitations is central to effective leadership.

Rasmussen’s Skills-Rules-Knowledge (SRK) framework is introduced as a practical lens to understand decision-making at different levels of complexity. The presentation explores how leaders respond to cues in the form of signals, signs, and symbols, and why recognising when to move beyond procedural or habitual responses into knowledge-based judgment is critical in complex environments.  This extends beyond the operational space into strategic decision-making dealing with complex leadership issues and sense-making problems.

A key theme is the role of mistakes in learning. Effective training and strong organisational cultures do not avoid error but allow mistakes to be surfaced, examined, and learned from in a controlled way. The presentation reflects on humility, accountability, and the courage required to learn from failure-both as individuals and as leaders responsible for others.
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Ultimately, the presentation challenges participants to consider how they develop their own decision-making capability, and how they create environments where their teams can safely learn, reflect, and turn experience into leadership.
 
Speakers
Chris Smith CSC PhD RAN
Captain Chris Smith CSC PhD RAN, Senior Officer, Australian Defence Force