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From fire danger to preparedness decisions: Turning ignition, suppression difficulty and impact information into action priorities
Before severe fire weather arrives, agencies have to decide where limited preparedness effort should go. Fire danger is central to that decision, but preparedness should also be informed by where ignitions are most likely, what could be affected, which fires would be hardest to manage, and which actions could still change the outcome. The next phase of AFDRS is developing prototype indices for ignition likelihood, suppression difficulty and impact, while other fire behaviour, fuel, exposure and risk products are also becoming more detailed. This talk develops and tests an integrated decision-support framing that ranks action priorities: where to focus attention, what type of action is most relevant, and where action could still make a difference. The framework treats ignition mechanism as part of the decision, because different types of ignitions can call for different preparedness actions, and it carries uncertainty in each input through to the priority ranking. The study uses historical replay of severe fire-weather periods in New South Wales, using only information that would have been available before each event, and tests whether the resulting priorities align with later ignitions, impacts and decision-relevant outcomes. The evaluation is structured so the same framework can begin with public data and then incorporate agency or utility data where partnerships allow. The work is intended to assess whether emerging ignition, suppression difficulty and impact information can support operational use alongside AFDRS products and current agency workflows.
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